Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt – which is usually involved in bankruptcies – is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Mercury NZ Limited (NZSE:MCY) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for Mercury NZ
As you can see below, at the end of June 2022, Mercury NZ had NZ$1.98b of debt, up from NZ$1.53b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had NZ$97.0m in cash, and so its net debt is NZ$1.89b.
According to the last reported balance sheet, Mercury NZ had liabilities of NZ$1.27b due within 12 months, and liabilities of NZ$3.64b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of NZ$97.0m and NZ$509.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling NZ$4.30b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Mercury NZ has a market capitalization of NZ$8.31b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Mercury NZ has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.4 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 4.6 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. If Mercury NZ can keep growing EBIT at last year's rate of 19% over the last year, then it will find its debt load easier to manage. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Mercury NZ can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, Mercury NZ's free cash flow amounted to 46% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Mercury NZ was the fact that it seems able to grow its EBIT confidently. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit handle its debt, based on its EBITDA,. It's also worth noting that Mercury NZ is in the Electric Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Mercury NZ's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example Mercury NZ has 3 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St's Editorial Team provides unbiased, factual reporting on global stocks using in-depth fundamental analysis.
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Mercury NZ Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, trading, and sale of electricity and related activities in New Zealand.
The Snowflake is a visual investment summary with the score of each axis being calculated by 6 checks in 5 areas.
Read more about these checks in the individual report sections or in our analysis model.
Good value with acceptable track record.
Simply Wall St's Editorial Team provides unbiased, factual reporting on global stocks using in-depth fundamental analysis.
Find out more about our editorial guidelines and team.
Mercury NZ Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, trading, and sale of electricity and related activities in New Zealand.
The Snowflake is a visual investment summary with the score of each axis being calculated by 6 checks in 5 areas.
Read more about these checks in the individual report sections or in our analysis model.
Good value with acceptable track record.
Simply Wall Street Pty Ltd (ACN 600 056 611), is a Corporate Authorised Representative (Authorised Representative Number: 467183) of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 337927). Any advice contained in this website is general advice only and has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice. Please read our Financial Services Guide before deciding whether to obtain financial services from us.
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