July 17, 2024

CHINA – 2022/08/17: In this photo illustration, the Credit Suisse AG logo seen displayed on a … [+] smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Sheldon Cooper/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Credit Suisse’s stock (NYSE: CS) has lost 21% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 by a huge margin (down 4.6%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (-24% vs -9.5%) and one month (-22% vs -11%).
A big chunk of the recent stock decline came after Reuters reported on Friday (down 12%) that the company is looking to raise fresh capital to revamp its investment banking business. The report further suggests the firm is weighing different scenarios for the investment bank, including exiting the U.S. market.
Before this, the bank posted weak results in the second quarter of 2022, with the net revenues decreasing 29% y-o-y to CHF 3.6 billion. It was primarily due to a decline in investment bank revenues driven by lower capital markets issuance activity and a drop in client activity levels. Further, the wealth management and asset management segments also posted negative growth. Overall, the pre-tax income was down from CHF 813 million to CHF -1.17 billion.
Now, is CS stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is an 83% chance of a rise in CS stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Credit Suisse’s Stock Chance of Rise.
CS Chance of Rise
Twenty-One Day: CS -22%, vs. S&P500 -11%; Underperformed market
(2% likelihood event; 83% probability of rise over next 21 days)

Ten Day: CS -24%, vs. S&P500 -9.5%; Underperformed market
(less than 1% likelihood event; 67% probability of rise over next 10 days)

Five Day: CS -21%, vs. S&P500 -4.6%; Underperformed market
(less than 1% likelihood event; 43% probability of rise over next five days)

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.
CS Return Compared With Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio
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